Israelis today are feeling the love from Washington and bracing themselves for trouble. As President Donald Trump announces practical steps towards moving the U.S. Embassy to Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, he breaks with precedent in overwhelmingly embracing the Israeli government narrative of Jerusalem’s status. Israel’s security establishment is preparing to contain the fallout. Given Palestinian outrage and the Israeli leadership’s predilection for provocation, over reaction, and collective punishment of Palestinians, this could get ugly. As the veteran Israeli commentator Orly Azulai notes in Israel’s leading circulation daily Yediot, “This is not a gift that shows affection for Israel ?this is a powder keg being left on our doorstep ?we are the ones that will pay the price.?Even if events do not immediately spiral out of control, the president’s announcement will have heightened tensions and sown the seeds for future instability.
今天的以色列人感受到?jin)来自华盛顿的爱Q也让自己陷入了(jin)ȝ(ch)当中。当国ȝ唐纳德L(fng)朗普宣布采取美国驻以色列大佉K从特拉维夫搬到耶\撒冷的实际步骤时Q他打破?jin)以往的先例，表态支持以色列政府对耶\撒冷C的论q。以色列的安全机构正准备遏制q一事g的附带媄(jing)响。鉴于巴勒斯坦h的愤怒，以及(qing)以色列领导层Ҏ(gu)(xi)衅、过度反应以?qing)对巴勒斯坦人的集体惩罚的偏好，q种情况可能?x)变得很p糕。正如以色列资深评论员Orly Azulai在以色列发行量最大的日报Yediot上所指出的那P“这不是一份对以色列示qC物。这是一个被扔在我们安口的火药桶。我们将?x)?f)此付Z仗”即使事态不?x)立卛_控，国ȝ的声明也?x)加剧紧张局势，为未来的不稳定局势埋下种子?
That a speech initiated by the White House, not demanded by events, had to include a call for calm itself speaks volumes.
白宫q在Ş势所q之下进行的一ơ发布会(x)不得不呼吁呼吁保持冷?rn)，qg事本w就说明?jin)问题?
The Jerusalem announcement from Washington needs to be kept in perspective. The proximate cause of insecurity and violations of human rights and international law, the actual problem in other words, is Israel’s policies towards the Palestinians on the ground not the verbal hot air from Washington. But the former is sustained and given protective cover by the latter.
我们需要对华盛方面有兌\撒冷的生命保持客观的态度。造成不安全局面、违反h权和国际法的直接原因——换句话说也是实际存在的问题——便是以色列对巴勒斯坦h的政{，而不是来自华盛顿的空话。但是前者却是依靠后者赖以存在和提供庇护的?
It is not at all clear that this U.S. initiative has been driven by Israel’s rightist government. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is of course not ideologically opposed to what the president is doing or saying, he will welcome it and declare victory. Trump’s words will also domestically empower Netanyahu at a moment of unprecedented weakness, born of the multiple corruption investigations being conducted against him alongside the heavy handed, legislatively problematic and borderline authoritarian manner of his response. But Trump’s announcement is not risk-free and the celebrations on the Israeli side of Jerusalem may prove to be hollow.
目前q(sh)清楚国的这一倡议是否是由以色列的右翼政府推动的。内塔尼亚胡ȝ当然不会(x)在意识Ş态上反对国ȝ所做的或说的，他会(x)Ƣ迎q宣布获得了(jin)胜利。特朗普的这番话也将在以色列国内l正处于最衰弱时期的内塔尼亚胡带来强力支持Q这一时期他正面(f)着针对自己的多重腐败行为的调查。但Ҏ(gu)普的声明q没有风险Q以色列斚w对耶\撒冷的庆(jin)可能会(x)被证明是无用的?
To be clear, Trump is not endangering his allies in Israel to the same degree as he is with the South Koreans. A pattern though may be emerging—this president could pose more of a threat to his allies than his adversaries.
需要澄清的是，Ҏ(gu)普ƈ没有像他寚w国h所做的那样Q危?qing)他的以色列盟友。尽这一模式可能是全新的Q但ȝ对盟友的威胁可能比他的对手更大?
This presidential initiative may well be the product of the hawkish, even extremist pro-Israel sympathies of his closest confidantes. It may also be designed to test how much regional leeway (especially regarding Israel) he can now claim given the extent the White House has deepened ties with certain Arab states, and in particular Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. In the most farfetched interpretations of this move, it has even been claimed that this lunge towards the Israeli side on Jerusalem can be used to create leverage and be constructively deployed if and when an American peace plan is presented. That is hogwash. If true, it displays a terrifying ignorance of the issues involved, the centrality of Jerusalem and the human dynamics of maintaining confidence and relationships in any mediation and peacemaking effort.
ȝ的这一倡议很可能是鹰派——甚x(chng)他最亲密的亲信中最为极端的亲以色列的同情者的强硬态度的物。考虑到白宫加׃(jin)与某些阿拉伯国家——尤其是沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯联合酋长国——的关系Q这也可能被设计用来试他现在可以拥有多大的区域回旋余地(其是在以色列这一问题?sh)?。在对这一行动的最牵强的解MQ甚x(chng)人Uͼ如果国和^计划得以实施Q那么在耶\撒冷向以色列一方的q一丑֊p被用于ؓ(f)国创造媄(jing)响力Qƈ?x)进行徏设性的部v。这是一z胡a。如果这是真的，它只?x)显C出Ҏ(gu)涉及(qing)到的问题、耶\撒冷的中?j)地位，以?qing)在Q何调解和调停q程中维持信d关系的hcd力的无知?
To understand the ‘why?and the ‘why now?of this move, one is probably better advised to visit the Breitbart website, which is proudly proclaiming ‘hallelujah?in a banner homepage headline. Not unusually for American engagement on this issue, this is probably more about the mid-West than the mid-East. Trump’s overall political strategy has been all about keeping the Republican Party and Congress on board by solidifying support within his own domestic political base. This move will play well, very well, with a large swathe of the dispensationalist Evangelical Christian community as well as with the very small cohort of conservative American Jewish support he carries, especially the subset of that cohort known as Sheldon Adelson.
Z(jin)理解q一丑֊的“原因”，Z最好可以去览一下Breitbartq个|站Q这是在首页横幅上高呼“哈利\亚”的|站。美国涉入这一问题q不是罕见的事情Q这可能更多的是关于国中西部而不是中东地区的政治。特朗普的M政治{略是通过巩固其国内政d的支持力量，共和党和国?x)拉上船。这一举措会(x)很好地发挥作用，因ؓ(f)有大批的音z֟督教C和一批保守的美国犹太h支持他，特别是那些被UCؓ(f)Sheldon Adelson的群体?
The question many experts have been pondering is how these considerations have trumped the traditional American national security interest argument whereby the price America pays for its indulgence of Israeli occupation practices, and its perpetuation of a grievance felt by Muslims and Arabs regarding Palestine, needs to be managed, not exacerbated. American policy on Israel/Palestine is a gift to radicalisation, and is consistently part of the extremist recruitment narrative from Bin Laden down.
很多专家一直在思考的问题是：(x)q些因素是如何胜q传l的国国家安全利益观点的？通过q种方式Q美国ؓ(f)它纵容以色列的占领行Z?qing)穆斯林和阿拉伯国家在巴勒斯坦问题?sh)持箋(hu)不断的不满情l所付出的代价需要得到处理，而不是Q其恶化。美国对以色列和巴勒斯坦的政{推动了(jin)Ȁq化Q而且一直以来都是自本hM来极端主义势力招募h员的的一部分?
CENTCOM chiefs have frequently and openly testified to how the handling of this issue can undermine American forces and security in the region and beyond. That entire trend is intensified when the focus becomes more narrowly that of Jerusalem.
国中央o(h)部的长官?sh)经常公开地证实这个问题(sh)(x)如何削弱国在该地区?qing)其他地区的军事力量和安全。当焦点更加地集中在耶\撒冷的时候，整个势׃(x)于恶化?
However, for those arguments to have carried the day, one has to assume that this White House agrees with the premise that U.S. interests are best served by seeking to heal and improve relations with the Muslim world. But if your own political project and the project for America is to polarize, to deepen divisions, and especially to demonize Muslims and perhaps even use that clash to achieve other domestic political transformations then you might have an interest in fomenting trouble, in generating demonstrations where for instance American flags may be burned.
然而，对于那些获得胜利的观Ҏ(gu)_(d)我们必须假定白宫同意q样的一个前提——即国的利益最好是通过L修复和改善与I斯林世界的关系而得以实现的。但是如果你自己的政治计划与国的计划是使分歧变得两极化、加深，特别是导致对I斯林的妖魔化，甚至是利用这一冲突来实现国内的其他政治转型Q那么你可能?x)有兴趣煽动骚(d)ؕ和大规模的抗议示威活动，比如在活动中可以烧毁国国旗?
Undoubtedly this is a defeat for the Palestinians in the short term, but more precisely, this is a defeat for what was anyway a failed Palestinian approach, one in desperate need of change. The clarity which the Trump administration is offering the Palestinians with regards to how counterproductive it is to continue pursuing an American-led peace process, to continue neglecting the accumulation of Palestinian leverage, that clarity may end up being more of a cause of concern for Israel.
毫无疑问Q对巴勒斯坦人来_(d)q是短时期内的失败，但更准确地说Q这是已l失败的巴勒斯坦人所必然?x)招致的一场失败，他们于绝望中急需改变。特朗普政府向巴勒斯坦h阐明的一Ҏ(gu)Q(h)l追求以国Z导的和^q程Q(h)l忽视巴勒斯坦媄(jing)响力的积累，会(x)是多么的适得其反Q而这U阐释最l将不止是引发以色列斚w的关注?
To understand why this might be the case, it is worth remembering why this conversation is taking place at all right now. The necessity for the U.S. President to address the issue of the embassy and Jerusalem every six months is not a Trump invention. It is a consequence of the Jerusalem Embassy Act passed by Congress in October of 1995 by an overwhelming 93-5 majority in the Senate and 374-37 in the House, calling on the embassy to move to Jerusalem unless the president uses a waiver for national security reasons. The push for that legislation in the early 1990s came not from the Israeli leadership of the time, but from the way this issue plays out in American domestic politics and the biases of the key lobbying groups, notably AIPAC. It was an initiative at the time which cornered and undermined the peace efforts of the then Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin (who privately opposed the move).
要理解ؓ(f)什么会(x)出现q种情况Q就需要记住ؓ(f)什么会(x)存在现在所有的q些对话。美国ȝ每六个月必面对大佉Kq址和耶\撒冷问题q不是特朗普的发明。这?995q?0月由国会(x)通过的耶\撒冷大馆法案所D的结果，该法案当时在参议院以93对3的多数通过Q众议院?74对37的多数通过Q它要求国大馆迁往耶\撒冷Q除非ȝZ国家安全考虑使用豁免条款。上世纪90q代初，q项立法的推动力q是以色列当时的领ghQ而是国国内政治所存在的问题，以及(qing)主要游说团体——尤其是以公共事务委员?sh)(x)——的偏见。这一倡议D当时的以色列ȝ拉宾(他私下反Ҏ(gu)?的和q_力被逼入l境q受到破坏?
The circumstances today are different. The current Israeli Prime Minister, Netanyahu, is seeking to close the door on any realistic peace deal and to gain acceptance and cover for the permanent disenfranchisement and bantustanization of the Palestinians.
今天的情冉|不同的。现M色列ȝ内塔g胡正在寻求关闭Q何现实的和^协议的大门，q试图ؓ(f)其永久剥夺巴勒斯坦h的n份及(qing)其组l的行ؓ(f)获得国际C会(x)的认为和提供掩护?
Still, the story of the Jerusalem Embassy Act is instructive. It speaks to the American inability to be an effective, let alone honest, broker on this issue, as being a permanent structural feature rather than an ephemeral Trumpian blip.
管如此Q耶\撒冷大馆法的故事还是很有启发性的。它表明Q美国不能在q个问题?sh)成Z个有效的、更遑论诚实的调解hQ因为它h一U永久性的l构性特征，而不是昙׃现的Ҏ(gu)普现象?
Trump suggested that his move was a departure from the failed policies of the past, in reality he is putting that same policy on steroids, a policy of putting America’s thumb down on the scales in favour of the stronger party, Israel.
Ҏ(gu)普表C，他的q一丑֊与过ȝp|政策不同Q实际上Q他只是在更加激q地使用同样的政{，q是一U将国的拇指放更强大的以色列一方的天^上的政策?
Trump’s moves are further cornering the Palestinian leadership and generating a demand among the public for a game-changing shift in strategy away from the current comfort zone of an American-Israeli defined peace process. That includes the need to sufficiently overcome debilitating internal Palestinian divisions.
Ҏ(gu)普的丑֊q一步疏M(jin)巴勒斯坦的领导层Qƈ在公众中引发?jin)一场将战略从目前的国-以色列定义的和^q程的舒适地带中转移出去的需求。这其中包括?jin)以克服巴勒斯?削弱下去的内部分歧的必要性?
Trump is doing the Palestinians a favour by making the centrepiece of this Jerusalem—the issue which resonates most broadly in Arab communities, and also amongst Muslims and Christians (as well as with Jews of course), and the issue around which people are more likely to be mobilized. The new Saudi leadership, given its particular closeness to the Trump administration and given its custodianship of the two holy mosques, is especially exposed and vulnerable should it appear to be complicit in selling out al-Aqsa and al-Quds. Trump’s mention in his speech of the Summit in Riyadh earlier this year will fuel speculation of Saudi culpability.
Ҏ(gu)普正在做已徏有利于巴勒斯坦h的事情，他又重新提出?jin)耶\撒冷问题——这个问题在阿拉伯社?x)引起?jin)q泛的共鸣，在穆斯林和基督徒(当然q有犹太?中引发了(jin)q泛的共鸣——也?x)导致h们更有可能被动员h。鉴于它与特朗普政府的密切关p，以及(qing)它对两家圣地清真寺的托管Q新的沙牚w拉伯领导层现在尤其受到曝光，而且很容易受到攻击，因ؓ(f)它似乎与出卖阿克萨清真寺和耶\撒冷的行Z与外人沆瀣一气。特朗普在今q早些时候在利雅得D行的C(x)上的讲话会(x)l沙Ҏ(gu)否有|的猜测火上a(b)?
Over the summer when Israel tried to unilaterally change arrangements at the al-Aqsa mosque compound, there was perhaps an unprecedented large-scale mobilization of Palestinian Jerusalemites, Palestinian citizens of Israel and West Bankers which, with Jordanian and international support, ultimately led to an Israeli capitulation.
今年夏天Q以色列试图单方面改变在阿克萨清真寺的相兛_排，q一行动D?jin)住在耶\撒冷的巴勒斯坦h、以色列的巴勒斯坦公民和U旦沌岸的巴勒斯坦人的史无前例的大规模抗议Qƈ得到?jin)约旦和国际C会(x)的支持，从而最l导致了(jin)以色列的妥协?
That was a timely reminder that Palestinians do have agency, that mobilization on the local and regional level matters, and that what is said in the Briefing Room in Washington ultimately counts for less than what is done on the ground in the Holy Land.
q是一个及(qing)时的提醒Q巴勒斯坦h实有在地方和地区层面上的进行动员的机构存在Q这一点在华盛的报室里已l被提及(qing)?jin)，但它最l对国在这片圣C的所作所为媄(jing)响甚微?
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